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2 Sep 2014
USD and EUR: opposite realities – Societe Generale
FXStreet (Barcelona) - Kit Juckes, Global Head of Currency Strategy at Societe Generale, remarks the differences between the Fed and the ECB policies.
Key Quotes
"The US 1year rate in 5 years is flirting with 3%, the lowest level since last June. It's fallen far further than I thought possible from the peak above 4% this time last year."
"At the same time, the 1y/1y rate is edging back towards the end-July recent peak near 1.2% and if we get strong data this week, we can see that broken. For most of the FX market, it's the shorter-term rate which matters more."
"The Fed has been successful in anchoring expectations about ‘terminal' Fed Funds, but the market is getting on with the job of pricing in a hiking cycle that starts in mid-2015. The dollar is responding and has further to rise."
"This shift in shorter-term US rate expectations contrasts with what is happening in the Euro area, of course, but markets are now in such a state of anticipation about what the ECB might do this Thursday (cut rates, increase bond purchases, unveil a ‘proper' QE programme?) that the risk of disappointment is clear. Mr Draghi's Jackson Hole comments point to increased concern, but the hurdles to stronger action haven't vanished and the ECB remains a slow-moving organisation."
Key Quotes
"The US 1year rate in 5 years is flirting with 3%, the lowest level since last June. It's fallen far further than I thought possible from the peak above 4% this time last year."
"At the same time, the 1y/1y rate is edging back towards the end-July recent peak near 1.2% and if we get strong data this week, we can see that broken. For most of the FX market, it's the shorter-term rate which matters more."
"The Fed has been successful in anchoring expectations about ‘terminal' Fed Funds, but the market is getting on with the job of pricing in a hiking cycle that starts in mid-2015. The dollar is responding and has further to rise."
"This shift in shorter-term US rate expectations contrasts with what is happening in the Euro area, of course, but markets are now in such a state of anticipation about what the ECB might do this Thursday (cut rates, increase bond purchases, unveil a ‘proper' QE programme?) that the risk of disappointment is clear. Mr Draghi's Jackson Hole comments point to increased concern, but the hurdles to stronger action haven't vanished and the ECB remains a slow-moving organisation."