EUR/GBP implied volatility hits highest since 2022 mini-budget – ING

EUR/GBP implied volatility spikes as markets adopt a cautious stance ahead of tomorrow’s UK Budget, with the pair expected to trade around 0.880 unless new developments emerge, ING's FX analyst Francesco Pesole notes.

Currency markets brace ahead of UK budget announcement

"EUR/GBP one-week implied volatility is trading 3 vols above realised, which is the highest relative gap since the 2022 Mini Budget. This signals that despite some recovery in back-end gilts, the currency market remains concerned ahead of tomorrow’s UK Budget announcement."

"The pair may hold around 0.880 for today amid a wait-and-see approach. That is, unless some Budget anticipations appear in the media and move the market (a non-negligible risk)."