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19 Feb 2013

Forex Flash: What lies ahead of EUR/USD? – UBS and Commerzbank

Confusion and lack of conviction seem to be the main characteristics of the sentiment surrounding the shared currency these last sessions, still waiting for any catalyst to break the congestion around 1.3340/50

The neutral outlook remains among analysts at UBS, where G.Yu and G.Berry argue, “There is strong support at 1.3270. Only a closing break below this would trigger deeper sell-off to 1.3187. Resistance is at 1.3393 ahead of 1.3520”.

In addition, Karen Jones, Head of FICC Technical Analysis at Commerzbank comments, “Only a recovery above 1.3520 would neutralise the immediate outlook and potentially re-target the 1.3711 February high (not favoured). Initial resistance is the accelerated downtrend at 1.3441”. The expert also added that a close below 1.3202 (7-month uptrend) is necessary to alleviate the upside pressure.
Feb 19, 2013

Forex Flash: EUR/USD keeps its eye on 1.3282 - Commerzbank

Yesterday's inside day left analysts' outlook unchanged, as attention remains on the 1.3282 3 month uptrend, with key near term support being 1.3282/56 (16th Jan low, the 61.8% retracement, the 55 day ma and the 3 month support line): "This is likely to hold the initial test – however the risks have increased that we will see an eventual break down through here towards the more important 1.3202 7 month uptrend and a close below here is required to negate the up move completely", wrote analyst Karen Jones. "Only a recovery above 1.3520 would neutralize the immediate outlook and potentially re-target the 1.3711 February high (not favored)", she added, pointing to initial resistance being the accelerated downtrend at 1.3441.
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Feb 19, 2013

Forex Flash: BoJ adjusts framework – UBS

Overnight the BoJ minutes from the Jan 21-22 meeting contained fresh insights into current thinking on the policy board (at this meeting the BoJ shifted to a 2% inflation target, and adopted an open-ended framework for asset purchase guidance). First, the explicit desire to affect the yen remains – a few members thought it important to increase the T-Bill purchase target from the viewpoint of exerting influence on the foreign exchange market through a decline in yields.
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