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China: More to lower rates than just policy easing - BofA
FXStreet (Bali) - Yang Chen, Rates Strategist at Merrill Lynch (Hong Kong) argue that the Chinese 7d repo rate could fall moderately further to an average of 2.5-3.0% in the coming months.
Key Quotes
"The rally in the China stock market since March has been significant and in our view at least partly related to expectations of policy stimulus, as reflected in lower rates."
"In particular, there has been a lot of focus on China’s money market rate – the 7-day repo – which has dropped about 200bp to 3.0%."
"The decline should come as no surprise as market rates were high relative to inflation, and high real rates were probably the last thing the government wanted to see given the slowdown in investment and economic growth. The market move has been consistent with our view that 7d repo should come off to 3.0-3.5% in the short term#."
"But a closer analysis suggests banks’ liquidity management also played an important role in the decline of repo rates, over and above the PBoC’s policy guidance. The question is how fast and to what extent can money market rates fall from the current low level, in particular after the latest weaker-than-expected financing and economic data."
"We argue that the 7d repo rate could fall moderately further to an average of 2.5-3.0% in the coming months, but that the sharp decline of recent months seems unlikely to repeat itself."
