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16 Apr 2015
Grexit fears favour German debt – MP
FXStreet (Barcelona) - Dean Popplewell, Director of Currency Analysis at MarketPulse, notes that along with the ECBs purchases, even Grexit related fears has made German debt attractive, and pushed Greece’s short-term yields higher than long-term in anticipation of a default.
Key Quotes
“It’s not just the ECB, but also Grexit fears that are driving German yields lower. Greek bonds are under pressure again this morning on the back of lowered market expectations over any reform proposals being forthcoming. This is raising the prospect of a possible default on May 12 when €747m is due to the IMF.”
“The fear factor is blowing out Greek/German spreads again, back to their March highs (+1225bps). With German government debt considered to be some of the lowest risk globally it’s only naturally that there are in particularly high demand.”
“Yesterday, S&P slashed Greece’s debt deeper into junk territory, saying it expects the country’s debt and financial commitments to be “unsustainable without deep economic reform.” This has pushed the yield on Greece’s 10-year bond to +12.3% while the yield on its two-year bond has ballooned to +25.3%. This inverted curve (short term yields are higher than long term yields) would suggest that the market is now betting heavily on a default.”
Key Quotes
“It’s not just the ECB, but also Grexit fears that are driving German yields lower. Greek bonds are under pressure again this morning on the back of lowered market expectations over any reform proposals being forthcoming. This is raising the prospect of a possible default on May 12 when €747m is due to the IMF.”
“The fear factor is blowing out Greek/German spreads again, back to their March highs (+1225bps). With German government debt considered to be some of the lowest risk globally it’s only naturally that there are in particularly high demand.”
“Yesterday, S&P slashed Greece’s debt deeper into junk territory, saying it expects the country’s debt and financial commitments to be “unsustainable without deep economic reform.” This has pushed the yield on Greece’s 10-year bond to +12.3% while the yield on its two-year bond has ballooned to +25.3%. This inverted curve (short term yields are higher than long term yields) would suggest that the market is now betting heavily on a default.”