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17 Apr 2015
Japanese investors reduce exposure to AUD and NZD denominated assets – Nomura
FXStreet (Barcelona) - FX Strategists at Nomura, note that Japanese investors reduced their exposure to AUD- or NZD-denominated assets amid sharp currency depreciation, but a re-entry might be possible if these currencies fall further and they think AUD and NZD are undervalued against JPY.
Key Quotes
“We have seen margin traders gradually reduce their long AUD- and NZD-denominated positions as these currencies depreciated against JPY. According to data from the Financial Futures Association of Japan on over-the-counter FX margin trading, so-called ”Mrs. Watanabe” was net long JPY618.8bn worth of AUD in February 2015, down from January (JPY763.1bn) and marking a consecutive monthly decline. These investors were net long JPY138.0bn of NZD in February 2015, also lower than in January (JPY219.0bn) and falling for a fourth consecutive month.”
“Around the end of January, both AUD and NZD depreciated sharply as the the Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) and Reserve Bank of New Zealand (RBNZ) pressured their currencies by releasing statements to elicit market expectations of rate cuts.”
“The ratio of net long positions held by margin traders, according to Gaitame.com, suggest that these traders kept a contrarian stance at first, adding to long AUD and NZD positions. However, it appears they were forced to cut these long positions in both currencies in response to the actual rate cut by the RBA in February.”
“As verbal intervention from the RBA strengthens to push down AUD, investors are losing their willingness to add to long positions. However, AUD/JPY has remained relatively firm, and we have yet to see a large-scale closing of long positions. We occasionally see a sharp increase in expectations of additional rate cuts, and the direction of AUD/JPY remains unclear.”
“The ratio of net long AUD positions has been range bound, which we believe indicates that margin traders are holding off on taking long positions.”
Key Quotes
“We have seen margin traders gradually reduce their long AUD- and NZD-denominated positions as these currencies depreciated against JPY. According to data from the Financial Futures Association of Japan on over-the-counter FX margin trading, so-called ”Mrs. Watanabe” was net long JPY618.8bn worth of AUD in February 2015, down from January (JPY763.1bn) and marking a consecutive monthly decline. These investors were net long JPY138.0bn of NZD in February 2015, also lower than in January (JPY219.0bn) and falling for a fourth consecutive month.”
“Around the end of January, both AUD and NZD depreciated sharply as the the Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) and Reserve Bank of New Zealand (RBNZ) pressured their currencies by releasing statements to elicit market expectations of rate cuts.”
“The ratio of net long positions held by margin traders, according to Gaitame.com, suggest that these traders kept a contrarian stance at first, adding to long AUD and NZD positions. However, it appears they were forced to cut these long positions in both currencies in response to the actual rate cut by the RBA in February.”
“As verbal intervention from the RBA strengthens to push down AUD, investors are losing their willingness to add to long positions. However, AUD/JPY has remained relatively firm, and we have yet to see a large-scale closing of long positions. We occasionally see a sharp increase in expectations of additional rate cuts, and the direction of AUD/JPY remains unclear.”
“The ratio of net long AUD positions has been range bound, which we believe indicates that margin traders are holding off on taking long positions.”