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24 Apr 2015
Fade AUD/NZD bounce - BNP Paribas
FXStreet (Bali) - BNP Paribas has initiated a short AUDNZD recommendation at 1.0225 targeting a move to 0.98 over the next few months, explains Steven Saywell, FX Strategist at the bank.
Key Quotes
"We believe there is value in fading the past 48 hour’s rally in AUDNZD. This cross remains in a downtrend that, in our opinion, has not ended despite the recent rally."
"Both the Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) and the Reserve Bank of New Zealand will hold monetary policy meetings in the next two weeks: we expect the RBA to cut rates and the RBNZ to stay on hold."
"We initiate a short AUDNZD recommendation at 1.0225 targeting a move to 0.98 over the next few months. We use a stop at 1.0370 – just above the range of technical resistance."
"Our economists forecast that the RBA will cut rates by 25bp at the upcoming May meeting, as recent inflation data have confirmed the declining trend – giving the central bank room to cut."
"Furthermore, RBA Governor Stevens’ recent comments questioning the power of monetary policy to increase demand with lower rates do not prevent easing, especially when looked at in conjunction with his attempts to weaken the AUD verbally. Easing monetary policy should facilitate this goal. Fixed income markets are pricing just a 50% chance of a rate cut at the 5 May policy meeting."
Key Quotes
"We believe there is value in fading the past 48 hour’s rally in AUDNZD. This cross remains in a downtrend that, in our opinion, has not ended despite the recent rally."
"Both the Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) and the Reserve Bank of New Zealand will hold monetary policy meetings in the next two weeks: we expect the RBA to cut rates and the RBNZ to stay on hold."
"We initiate a short AUDNZD recommendation at 1.0225 targeting a move to 0.98 over the next few months. We use a stop at 1.0370 – just above the range of technical resistance."
"Our economists forecast that the RBA will cut rates by 25bp at the upcoming May meeting, as recent inflation data have confirmed the declining trend – giving the central bank room to cut."
"Furthermore, RBA Governor Stevens’ recent comments questioning the power of monetary policy to increase demand with lower rates do not prevent easing, especially when looked at in conjunction with his attempts to weaken the AUD verbally. Easing monetary policy should facilitate this goal. Fixed income markets are pricing just a 50% chance of a rate cut at the 5 May policy meeting."