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Berita dagangan
24 Apr 2015
USD expected to strengthen against EUR and JPY – Goldman Sachs
FXStreet (Barcelona) - FX Analysts at Goldman Sachs believe that markets are positioned too dovish for US rates, and fundamentals suggest both EUR and JPY are set to weaken against the dollar.
Key Quotes
“We expect the US Dollar to strengthen on a broad basis, particularly against the Euro and the Yen. The soft patch in US data and the dovish March FOMC has put a brake on the Dollar’s progress, but in our view this will prove temporary as US activity picks up through the second quarter.”
“A further improvement in the labour market should act as a natural circuit-breaker: as long as the unemployment rate continues to tick down – and the recent run rate on job gains is more than enough – the Fed will have to move off the zero lower bound. As a result, the US rates market may be priced too dovishly.”
“On the European side, while European data have improved in recent months, we do not see this as a positive for EUR/$, as the strength of ECB policy will ensure there is no transmission from stronger data to higher European rates. Instead, we expect the Euro to trade more like the USD in the period of Fed forward guidance and asset purchases, during which both US rates and the USD had limited sensitivity to macro data.”
“For the Yen, the likelihood of further BoJ easing is increasing given the weakness in inflation. We expect further easing at the July meeting, with markets likely to push $/JPY up as the shortfall in inflation is realised.”
Key Quotes
“We expect the US Dollar to strengthen on a broad basis, particularly against the Euro and the Yen. The soft patch in US data and the dovish March FOMC has put a brake on the Dollar’s progress, but in our view this will prove temporary as US activity picks up through the second quarter.”
“A further improvement in the labour market should act as a natural circuit-breaker: as long as the unemployment rate continues to tick down – and the recent run rate on job gains is more than enough – the Fed will have to move off the zero lower bound. As a result, the US rates market may be priced too dovishly.”
“On the European side, while European data have improved in recent months, we do not see this as a positive for EUR/$, as the strength of ECB policy will ensure there is no transmission from stronger data to higher European rates. Instead, we expect the Euro to trade more like the USD in the period of Fed forward guidance and asset purchases, during which both US rates and the USD had limited sensitivity to macro data.”
“For the Yen, the likelihood of further BoJ easing is increasing given the weakness in inflation. We expect further easing at the July meeting, with markets likely to push $/JPY up as the shortfall in inflation is realised.”