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FXStreet (Barcelona) - Simon Wells, Chief UK Economist at HSBC Bank, forecasts UK Q1 GDP growth to slow down to 0.4% qoq, with risks to the forecasts tilted to the downside.
Key Quotes
“In light of a modest contraction in both service sector and manufacturing output in January and sharp falls in construction in both January and February, we revised down our Q1 growth forecast to 0.4% from 0.6%.”
“We expect service sector growth to slow from 0.9% q-o-q in Q4 to 0.6% in Q1, led by non-distribution private services. Despite some slightly disappointing retail sales data for March, we still think the growth in the distribution sector held up.”
“In order to achieve our Q1 growth forecast, we have assumed a bounce-back in monthly service sector growth in February and March and a small upward revision to January's outturn. We have also assumed some upward revisions to the weak construction numbers seen so far this year.”
“If either the bounce-back or the revisions to the back data fail to materialise, Q1 growth could be lower than our 0.4% q-o-q forecast. We therefore see downside risks to our central case.”
