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2 Feb 2016
RBA: No fireworks offered, stay short AUD - BNPP
FXStreet (Delhi) – Research Team at BNP Paribas, suggests that as expected, the Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) left the cash rate unchanged at 2% consistent with the RBA’s previous assessment of gradual improvement in the domestic economy.
Key Quotes
“The accompanying statement highlighted the risk of potentially weaker global and domestic demand. FX commentary was little changed, and continued to reflect consistency with commodity prices. We will receive more information from the RBA’s Monetary Policy Statement (MPS) on Friday.
Recent dovish surprises from the ECB, BoJ and RBNZ arguably caution against turning too complacent on the RBA, and there is scope for a more dovish signal in the statement on Friday. Diminishing expectations for Fed tightening will increase pressure in the RBA to ease policy especially if AUD remains at elevated levels compared to other commodity-bloc currencies such as CAD and NZD.
BNP Paribas FX Positioning Analysis suggests there is considerable potential for AUD shorts to play catch up to others. December building approvals data on Wednesday and retail sales Friday will be watched for potential signs that resilience is starting to fade. We remain short AUDUSD via a 0.70 put in our recommendations portfolio with expiry this Friday.”
Key Quotes
“The accompanying statement highlighted the risk of potentially weaker global and domestic demand. FX commentary was little changed, and continued to reflect consistency with commodity prices. We will receive more information from the RBA’s Monetary Policy Statement (MPS) on Friday.
Recent dovish surprises from the ECB, BoJ and RBNZ arguably caution against turning too complacent on the RBA, and there is scope for a more dovish signal in the statement on Friday. Diminishing expectations for Fed tightening will increase pressure in the RBA to ease policy especially if AUD remains at elevated levels compared to other commodity-bloc currencies such as CAD and NZD.
BNP Paribas FX Positioning Analysis suggests there is considerable potential for AUD shorts to play catch up to others. December building approvals data on Wednesday and retail sales Friday will be watched for potential signs that resilience is starting to fade. We remain short AUDUSD via a 0.70 put in our recommendations portfolio with expiry this Friday.”