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2 Feb 2016
USD/COP poised for further gains – Rabobank
FXStreet (Edinburgh) - Strategist at Rabobank Christian Lawrence sees the Colombian peso deflating further on lower crude oil prices.
Key Quotes
“It’s all about oil for COP, and from this perspective there is near-term downside risk. Although we see oil trending higher by year-end, there is certainly the potential to move down towards USD20 per barrel in the short term, and that would likely push USD/COP north of 3,500”.
“Inflationary pressures continue to rise, and we fully expect the Bank to continue raising rates despite the 125bp of tightening already seen since September”.
“In December, FinMin Cardenas cited 3,000 as an ideal level for USD/COP, but we think those expecting the pair to trade round that level are likely to be disappointed with 3,500 our 6-12 month target. Indeed, we will likely be screaming the mantra of “new all-time highs” for some time to come”.
Key Quotes
“It’s all about oil for COP, and from this perspective there is near-term downside risk. Although we see oil trending higher by year-end, there is certainly the potential to move down towards USD20 per barrel in the short term, and that would likely push USD/COP north of 3,500”.
“Inflationary pressures continue to rise, and we fully expect the Bank to continue raising rates despite the 125bp of tightening already seen since September”.
“In December, FinMin Cardenas cited 3,000 as an ideal level for USD/COP, but we think those expecting the pair to trade round that level are likely to be disappointed with 3,500 our 6-12 month target. Indeed, we will likely be screaming the mantra of “new all-time highs” for some time to come”.