NFP Preview: Expect average hourly earnings to rise 0.3% m/m and 2.8% y/y – GS

Analysts at Goldman Sachs provide a brief insight on the expectations for the upcoming key US employment data, the NFP.

Key Points:

• Forecast +200k in January

Looking for a reacceleration, citing:

• Lower-than-usual year-end layoffs
• Favourable weather effects
• Further improvement in labour market indicators

GS believes the unemployment rate is likely to fall one-tenth to 4.6%

• which would mark a return to the cycle low
• in part driven by reduced year-end retail layoffs

GS expects average hourly earnings to rise 0.3% m/m and 2.8% y/y

• Reflecting firming labor markets & state-level minimum wage hikes