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6 Feb 2017
Le Pen leading the polls for round 1 - not good for risk, great for the VIX
Latest poll has Le Pen winning Round 1 of the French presidential election
Weekend news wrap-up: Trump getting 'Trumped' on travel bans / WW3 on the horizon?
From the weekend news, we learned that Le Pen started her anti-globalisation campaign, a populist movement that Brexit and Trump have endorsed that is becoming a trend and something that is driving risk aversion throughout markets and potentially responsible for the poor start in European equities this week and a spike in volatility.
We have learned that Le Pen is leading the first round with Opinionway putting Le Pen in the lead at 26%, Macron 23% and Fillon at 20%.
However, what markets should be mostly on the look out for are the polls for round two where Macron has the majority at 65% to Le Pen's 35%. But, if Brexit and Trump is anything to go by, we know that the polls do not tell the whole story.