When are German IFO surveys and how they could affect EUR/USD?

German IFO Business Climate Overview

The German Ifo surveys for August are lined up for release later today at 8GMT. The headline Ifo Business Climate Index is expected to tick slightly lower to 115.5 in Aug versus 116.0 seen last month. The Current Assessment sub-index is seen a tad weaker at 125.0 this month, while the Ifo Expectations Index – indicating firms’ projections for the next six months – is also expected to soften a bit to 106.8 in Aug, as compared to July’s 107.3 reading.

Deviation impact on EUR/USD

Readers can find FX Street's proprietary deviation impact map of the event below. As observed the reaction is likely to remain confined between 3 and 40 pips in deviations up to 2.4 to -3.2, although in some cases, if notable enough, a deviation can fuel movements of up to 60 pips.

 How could affect EUR/USD?

The German IFO Surveys are expected to show dismal figures across all indicators, which could make it more difficult for the EUR/USD pair to return to 1.18 handle, while better-than expected data could help stall the latest leg lower at 1.1750 levels.

Technically, “Yesterday's relatively narrow move suggests further sideways swings would continue ahead of key speeches by Fed Chair Yellen and ECB's Draghi at Jackson Hole Symposium later today and as long as 1.1741 sup holds, upside bias remains for re-test of this week's 1.1828 high (Mon), above signals correction from August's peak at 1.1909 has ended and price would head to 1.1845, then towards 1.1892 next week.  Only a daily close below 1.1741 would risk another fall but reckon last week's bottom at 1.1663 should remain intact,” explains AceTrader Team.

Key notes

Germany: Headline IFO index likely to fall to 115.5 in August - TDS

Analysts at TDS are in line with consensus in looking for Germany’s headline IFO index to fall from 116.0 to 115.5 in August.

About German IFO Business Climate

This German business sentiment index released by the CESifo Group is closely watched as an early indicator of current conditions and business expectations in Germany. The Institute surveys more than 7,000 enterprises on their assessment of the business situation and their short-term planning. The positive economic growth anticipates bullish movements for the EUR, while a low reading is seen as negative (or bearish).