RBNZ: 4Q18 for a potential hike?- OUB

Analysts at UOB Group noted that, as for the RBNZ, this would be interim RBNZ Governor Grant Spencer’s first full monetary policy statement, and this also happens to be the first RBNZ rate decision under the new Labour-led government.

Key Quotes:

"There are no expectations for any moves on rates, and for the next expected adjustment, markets are currently looking out to 4Q18 for a potential hike. The one possible area for change is an adjustment to inflation expectations in order to account for the weaker currency."

"In Graeme Wheeler’s final press conference as the head of the bank in August, the RBNZ said that they anticipate rates staying on hold until at least September of 2019. Since then, we’ve seen inflation come-in at 1.9% versus the RBNZ’s projection of 1.6%, and the additional slide in NZD will likely necessitate a small adjustment for forward-looking inflation figures."