US: Headline CPI inflation to slip back to 2.0% y/y in October – TDS

Analysts at TDS expect US headline CPI inflation to slip back to 2.0% y/y in October, with prices rising 0.1% m/m.

Key Quotes

“Energy prices should be a drag, led by declines in gasoline prices, which should give back some of their hurricane-induced strength. We expect core CPI to print a 0.2% m/m increase — though serial disappointment keeps us cautious. A firmer read in October is possible on a rebound in core goods prices, helped by higher vehicle prices. Shelter prices, which moderated in September, also have scope for a pickup, keeping the upward pull in core services in check. We expect core inflation to be stable at 1.7% y/y.”