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Senior Analyst at Danske Bank Jens Pedersen assessed the prospects for the pair in the near and medium terms.
Key Quotes
“EUR/USD continues to test new lows and we do in fact think that the Italian turmoil, a hesitant ECB, US yields and carry mean that risks to EUR/USD and notably our forecast profile now lie clearly on the downside”.
“Near term, we expect new 2018 lows as notably the US’ favourable cyclical position continues to manifest itself; the next key support levels to watch are 1.1579 (8-Nov low) and 1.1479 (20-Jul low). We emphasise that our 12M forecast (1.28) is challenged as we now envisage an extended period during which EUR/USD would be stuck below 1.20 as support from the ECB ‘normalisation’ has been postponed”.
“In our view, clients with USD income/assets should consider risk reversals for hedging purposes out to the 6M horizon as the risk of a significant EUR rebound here has been postponed. Beyond the 6M horizon , we think forwards remain attractive, and clients with USD income/assets should exploit the spot dips, which we think will occur near term, to lock in exposure at longer horizons”.
