US: Downside risks for December NFP – TDS

Analysts at TD Securities see more downside than upside risk for the US payrolls in December after an exaggerated surge in November (266K and around 220K excluding returning strikers).

Key Quotes

“Even our below-consensus 145K forecast implies a strong 189K average for Q4, above the 173K average for the first nine months of the year, so the December reading could be even weaker without necessarily signaling a major slowing in the trend. A still-solid trend continues to be signaled by jobless claims. We are neutral relative to consensus on the unemployment rate and hourly earnings: flat at 3.5% and up 0.3% m/m, respectively.”

“The unemployment rate and the rest of the household survey data will reflect the annual re-estimation of the seasonal factors; changes are typically minor and offsetting. The annual revision to the establishment survey data, which can lead to sizable changes in payrolls, will be in the January report released in February.”