Italy: Economy setback – Rabobank

In the final quarter of 2019 Italian real GDP contracted by 0.3% q-o-q. Economists at Rabobank expect the economy to be broadly stagnant in 2020 and to contract in 2021. 

Key quotes

“We still forecast economic growth to be broadly stagnant in the first quarter of this year. The prospect of yet another contraction and hence a recession cannot be ruled out.”

“We expect the slowdown to continue in 2021, with growth of private expenditure even turning negative in 2021. We expect the economy to be broadly stagnant in 2020 and to slightly contract in 2021.”

“We expect growth of private consumption and housing investment to slow over the coming two years.” 

“Given the large internal divisions, the government’s very weak majority in the Senate and the busy regional election calendar in spring, we expect little meaningful legislation to improve the country’s very weak longer-term growth perspective and public finances.”