When is China's Caixin Manufacturing PMI and how could it affect the AUD/USD?

China Caixin Manufacturing PMI overview

Given the record low prints of China’s official Purchasing Manager Index (PMI) for February, traders of the commodity-linked currencies, especially the Australian dollar (AUD), are all waiting for Caixin Manufacturing PMI. February month data, up for publishing at 01:45 GMT on Monday, is expected to come in at 45.7 versus 51.1 prior.

It’s worth mentioning that the odds of the RBA’s rate cut have rallied following the widespread outbreak of coronavirus into the key economies. However, any surprises from the largest customer China can have the ability to offer intermediate pullback and hence are worth observing.

How could it affect the AUD/USD?

Considering the widely anticipated downbeat prints of China’s February month Caixin Manufacturing PMI, figures near to the forecasts will support market expectations of a 0.25% rate cut from the RBA on Wednesday. The same should drag the pair further towards March 2009 low close to 0.6280/85.

Alternatively, a surprise increase in the data, or a miss by a larger gap, can offer intermediate Aussie pullback towards a seven-day-old falling trend line near 0.6570.

Key Notes

AUD/USD remains below 0.6500 with focus on China’s Caixin PMI

AUD/USD Forecast: Aussie continues to suffer amid risk aversion, RBA decision eyed

About the China Caixin PMI

The Caixin China Manufacturing PMI™ is based on data compiled from monthly replies to questionnaires sent to purchasing executives in over 400 private manufacturing sector companies.