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7 May 2013
Forex Flash: RBA “We are not for sale” - BMO Capital Markets
FXstreet.com (Barcelona) - Stephen Gallo, European Head of FX Strategy at BMO Capital Markets comments that he finds himself facing something of a dilemma with regard to AUD-
He notes that while he would like to see the currency lower still, he also appreciates that it may actually take a bit more effort ahead for the RBA to actually beat the ´Strong AUD´ or ´aggressive AUD buying on dips´ mentality in the market.
As such, he and his team are hesitant to start aggressively readjusting their short-term AUD forecasts on the back of this morning’s RBA rate decision and other recent events. They are at the same time, however, contemplating just how much of this latest move lower in the AUD may reflect a further evolution in the long-term uptrend for the AUD (which has been in place for a long time), and for the markets’ psychology towards the currency as well.
He finishes by commenting, “We continue to suspect that the RBA – where possible – would like to tamper with and re-mould this psychology towards the currency whilst certain sectors of the economy adjust to or “catch-up” with its current level, which in our view is unlikely to retrace a substantial portion of its multi-year rally any time soon, if ever at all.”
He notes that while he would like to see the currency lower still, he also appreciates that it may actually take a bit more effort ahead for the RBA to actually beat the ´Strong AUD´ or ´aggressive AUD buying on dips´ mentality in the market.
As such, he and his team are hesitant to start aggressively readjusting their short-term AUD forecasts on the back of this morning’s RBA rate decision and other recent events. They are at the same time, however, contemplating just how much of this latest move lower in the AUD may reflect a further evolution in the long-term uptrend for the AUD (which has been in place for a long time), and for the markets’ psychology towards the currency as well.
He finishes by commenting, “We continue to suspect that the RBA – where possible – would like to tamper with and re-mould this psychology towards the currency whilst certain sectors of the economy adjust to or “catch-up” with its current level, which in our view is unlikely to retrace a substantial portion of its multi-year rally any time soon, if ever at all.”