GBP/USD: Sterlign may struggle for direction over the near-term – HSBC

The UK government announced another GBP15bn of measures for households, partially funded by a windfall tax. Until it becomes clearer how the new fiscal policy interacts with the monetary policy, the GBP may struggle for direction, economists at HSBC report.

Lacking energy, despite new fiscal measures

“The GBP is being pushed and pulled by the latest UK fiscal announcement on 26 May, with potentially positive cyclical signals battling against contrastingly negative structural ones. Until it is clear how this new fiscal policy interacts with the Bank of England’s (BoE) monetary policy, the GBP may struggle for direction.”

“The extra help being offered to a range of consumers suggests upside risks for inflation, demand and interest rates.”

“As only GBP5bn will be raised through the windfall tax, with the other GBP10bn presumably being added to borrowing, markets might see the increase in the budget deficit implied by the latest plan as a longer-term structural concern for the UK and for the GBP.”